Despite the advantage of incumbency and the historic significance of serving as St. Petersburg’s first Black mayor, Ken Welch secured support for a second term from just 1 in 5 voters in Tuesday’s primary.
An early analysis of votes by neighborhood further underscores the challenge that awaits Welch if he has any hope of overtaking his Nov. 3 general election opponent, former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, who came in first Tuesday.
Crist fared no worse than second place in any of the city’s 84 precincts on his way to securing 35% of the primary vote Tuesday. Welch fared no better than third place in more than 70% of precincts.
The sitting mayor came in fourth in more than a third of precincts, from Bahama Shores to Disston Heights.
That’s quite the contrast from five years ago when Welch, a former five-term county commissioner, secured a healthy plurality of the vote in a primary with nine candidates.
This time both former Fire Rescue Chief Jim Large and City Council member Brandi Gabbard were nipping at Welch’s heels, each with nearly 18% of the vote.
Former Shore Acres Civic Association president Kevin Batdorf, who came in last with 3%, endorsed Crist on Wednesday. Large, Gabbard and Maria Scruggs, who finished with 5% of the votes, had not declared their support for either as of Wednesday.
Crist did well all over, but Welch won heavily Black neighborhoods.
Crist dominated throughout the city except in majority-Black neighborhoods clustered in southern St. Petersburg.
Welch maintained a strong pull in those precincts.
Welch won only four precincts that are not majority or plurality-Black, including just two that are north of Central Avenue.Those were the neighborhood around the President Barack Obama Main Library and the handful of residents who live north of Gandy Boulevard and west of Interstate 275.
Welch will need to win more votes outside of heavily Black neighborhoods for a fighting chance in the runoff.
Neighborhoods flooded in 2024’s hurricanes did not vote Welch
Welch’s response to hurricanes Helene and Milton in 2024 did him no favors in neighborhoods that flooded and had backed him five years ago.
The Allendale Park/Five Points and Crescent Heights neighborhoods voted for Welch in both the primary and general elections in 2021. This time, Welch finished fourth there.
The same happened with flooded neighborhoods on the southside in Old Southeast, Coquina Key, Bahama Shores and the pink streets in Pinellas Point. He finished near the bottom in each, neighborhoods he won in both 2021 elections.
Shore Acres and Barcley Estates, neighborhoods among the hardest hit by the hurricanes and where Batdorf and Gabbard live, respectively, turned out more for Crist and Large.
Gabbard came in third in her own district
Gabbard won only two precincts — and neither were in the council district she has represented since 2018.
She was the No. 1 choice for voters in the Democrat rich neighborhoods of Historic Kenwood and Central Oak Park. Welch placed third there.
Those neighborhoods are 10 miles south of Gabbard’s district representing the city’s northernmost neighborhoods of Gandy, Riviera Bay and Barcley Estates.
Gabbard was automatically reelected in 2021 to a second term on the council serving District 2 after her sole opponent dropped out of the race.
Gabbard wasn’t even the second choice in her district, which might explain her fourth-place finish. She came in third either behind Crist and Welch, or Crist and Large.
Welch needs to win over Democrats
The 2021 race pitted Welch, a Democrat, against Robert Blackmon, a Republican, in a race that is technically nonpartisan but in which party allegiance can be a factor.
But this time, Welch and Crist are both Democrats. They’re also both former Republicans.
Welch will have to fight to win over Democrats. He must be their choice over Crist. Neighborhoods that supported Gabbard may be fertile ground for Welch.
With 45% of votes in the primary available for pickup, Welch needs two-thirds of that to have a chance at a second term. And he must perform well among those who did not cast ballots in the primary but turn out in November.
Republican-leaning precincts went for Crist
Large and Batdorf were the two Republicans in the race.
In neighborhoods that tend to vote more Republican, such as Shore Acres and the west side of St. Petersburg, Large placed second behind Crist.
Large won only one precinct: South Causeway Isles, home to Yacht Club Estates.
Tampa Bay Times staff writer Ashley Borja contributed to this report.
Written by:
Colleen Wright and Langston Taylor of the Tampa Bay Times