Former Gov. Charlie Crist and incumbent Mayor Ken Welch will head to a runoff in the November General Election after securing the No. 1 and 2 spots in Tuesday’s Primary.
With preliminary vote totals counted, Crist leads the field with 36% of the vote, while Welch trails with 21%. St. Pete City Council Member Brandi Gabbard and former St. Pete Fire Chief Jim Large trailed with 17% and 18% of the vote, respectively.
Candidates Maria Scruggs and Kevin Batdorf barely registered, with both in single digits.
Crist celebrated his victory at Cassis in downtown St. Pete.
“I’m full of gratitude and not attitude,” Crist said at the event. “It was very humbling. We have a long way to go, about 70 days to November 3rd.”
“We’ve got to make St. Pete affordable … we’re going to do that and make that happen,” he added.
Welch celebrated his second place finish and runoff berth on social media.
“St. Pete, tonight belongs to you. To every neighbor who knocked doors, made calls, planted a sign, or showed up to vote — thank you. This city raised me, and I’m honored to keep working for the community that made me who I am. We’re not done yet. On to November,” Welch wrote after results were tabulated.
In the days and weeks leading up to the Primary, the final story on the race seemed to be less about who might win, and more about who might not.
Welch, throughout the campaign, consistently struggled amid campaign finance snafus, slow fundraising and waning support. Meanwhile, Crist brought his extensive campaign experience to the forefront, leading the pack of six contenders in both polling and fundraising.
As the incumbent, trouble for Welch was apparent from the beginning, as he drew a field of challengers all in one way or another running as a referendum on Welch’s first term. Both Crist and Gabbard supported Welch in his first bid for Mayor, only to challenge him several years later. Large is retired now, but for much of Welch’s first term Large worked closely with Welch as a member of his Cabinet.
Batdorf, a local businessman who was President of the Shore Acres Neighborhood Civic Association when Hurricanes Helene and Milton struck two years ago, challenged Welch largely because of what critics perceive as an inadequate response by the Welch administration after the storms. And Scruggs’ campaign message was largely in opposition to the current administration.
For those reasons, and more, there was a question — that has now been put to rest — about whether Welch would survive the Primary.
Now the question pivots to the General Election, where Welch will continue facing electoral challenges.
Welch has been bleeding support this election cycle, with many who backed him in 2021 swapping allegiance to another candidate or sitting out of the race entirely.
Such is the case for Sen. Darryl Rouson, long a Welch ally who first decided to endorse both Crist and Welch before announcing that he would be casting his ballot for Crist. There’s also John Muhammad, a former City Council member who previously supported Welch, but decided not to endorse anyone in this race.
The Tampa Bay Times, which supported Welch in his first election, bucked the incumbent not once, but twice this year. Times Publishing Co. Chair and CEO Conan Gallaty recommended Gabbard, while Tampa Bay Times Viewpoints Editor Graham Brink chose to support Crist. They disagreed over who should replace Welch, but united around the conclusion that the city needs a change.
More than all that, though, Welch will have to overcome a major funding disadvantage in November.
Welch has struggled to raise the kind of cash needed to win a competitive mayoral race in a mid-sized city. What’s more, his campaign has been plagued with a series of unforced errors that could give voters the impression that Welch isn’t ready to continue playing in the big leagues.
Overall, Crist has raised more than $2 million for the race between his campaign account and affiliated political committee. Welch has raised less than a half million.
On top of that, Welch is now on his third political committee since first running for Mayor in 2021. His first, Pelican PAC, was revoked by the state for consistently failing to file certain required documents. His second, The Pelican Political Action Committee, was abandoned after it became public that a former Treasurer, Yolanda Brown, had allegedly stolen $207,000 from it by making a series of unauthorized expenditures to a business she controls.
The current committee, St. Petersburg Progress PAC, has faced its own challenges. In June, the committee missed a campaign finance reporting deadline.
Now, Welch heads to the General Election with far less cash on hand than Crist.
As of Aug. 13, Crist had more than $366,000 still on hand between his two funding sources. Welch, by comparison, had less than $56,000.
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Ed. note: Michelle Todd Schorsch is the Chair of St. Pete Shines, a political committee backing Crist for St. Petersburg Mayor. Todd Schorsch is married to Peter Schorsch, the publisher of Florida Politics.
Written by Janelle Irwin Taylor of Florida Politics