For the first time since entering the race for St. Petersburg Mayor, former Gov. Charlie Crist is posting majority support among city voters, with a commanding 25-point lead over incumbent Mayor Ken Welch.
A St. Pete Polls survey taken Monday and Tuesday among 509 likely St. Pete voters shows Crist with 52% support in the race, while Welch trails at 27%.
With 21% still undecided, the numbers further cloud an already difficult path to victory for Welch. Even with all of the undecided votes, he’d still finish with just 48% support, 4 points behind Crist.
Data from the poll show Crist has improved his position among several demographics, including erasing Welch’s advantage among Black voters and Democrats while gaining ground among both Republicans and independent voters.
As of late July, when a previous St. Pete Polls survey was taken ahead of the Primary, Welch led Crist among Black voters by 26 percentage points. The new poll, the first taken since the Primary, in which Crist finished nearly 15 points ahead of Welch, shows Crist leading Welch among Black voters by 1 percentage point. While that is well within the poll’s margin of error (4.3 percentage points overall, and considerably wider for a subsample of 86 Black voters), it shows a 27-point swing for Crist among Welch’s strongest demographic.
What’s more, Black voters are the most likely to sit out the race, an apparent rebuke of the incumbent, who is serving as the city’s first African American Mayor. About 17% of Black voters say they’re not sure if they’ll vote in the mayoral race, followed by 14% of independents and 13% of young voters ages 18-29. Meanwhile, only 5% of white voters say they’re not sure if they’ll cast a ballot in the Mayor’s race.
Welch’s poor showing in the poll is likely a result of his approval rating, which is vastly underwater, at minus 25. The poll found just 24% of voters approve of Welch’s job performance, compared with 49% who disapprove. That’s a sharp drop since polling in late March, when he had a net-positive approval rating of 7 points. In late June, Welch was underwater by 5 points.
Crist’s polling has continuously improved since March, while Welch’s has generally declined. Welch polled at 31% support in a head-to-head against Crist in March, with his strongest showing in late June at 32% support. Welch’s current 27% is his lowest yet. Crist, meanwhile, polled at 36% support in March, jumping to 40% in June, 44% in mid-July, 45% in late July, and now 52%.
The poll numbers may not be entirely surprising. Crist has dominated fundraising in the race and maintains a sizable cash-on-hand advantage over Welch.
Crist’s affiliated political committee, St. Pete Shines, has raised more than $1.9 million to date, while his campaign has brought in more than $132,000. Welch’s PC, St. Petersburg Progress, has raised nearly $407,000, while his campaign has brought in less than $64,000.
Crist’s cash-on-hand total for his PC is now nearly $275,000. Welch’s PC retains less than $9,000, a difference of about $266,000. As of Aug. 14, Crist also had a cash advantage in campaign funding, with more than $65,000 on hand. Welch carried about $23,000.
Endorsements could also be playing a role. Two of the four mayoral candidates who did not make the runoff, Kevin Batdorf and Maria Scruggs, have already endorsed Crist. Jim Large, the city’s former Fire Chief, said he doesn’t plan to endorse a candidate at all, while City Council Member Brandi Gabbard has not indicated whether she’ll make an endorsement.
The General Election runoff for Mayor is Nov. 3.
Written by Florida Politics staff