St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch has a clear base heading into November in majority-Black precincts across South St. Petersburg. Still, former Gov. Charlie Crist was often right behind him, according to a data analysis of Primary Election results.
Crist won Tuesday’s six-way mayoral Primary with roughly 35% of the vote, while Welch finished second with about 21%, sending both to a Nov. 3 runoff. But a Tampa Bay Times analysis of the results found Welch’s victories concentrated overwhelmingly in majority- or plurality-Black precincts, particularly in South St. Petersburg. Welch won just four precincts outside of that group, including only two districts north of Central Avenue.
What’s more, the Times analysis found Welch fared no better than third place in the Primary Election in 70% of the city’s precincts, while Crist fared no worse than second place in any of the city’s 84 precincts.
But a closer analysis of the data, as compiled by the Times into precinct-by-precinct numbers, shows much more.
Welch wins Black neighborhoods, but Crist is not far behind
The Times characterized majority-Black neighborhoods as the exception to Crist’s dominance elsewhere in St. Petersburg, saying Welch “maintained a strong pull” in those precincts. A closer look at the data shows Welch’s victories there were far from monolithic.
Across the precincts Welch carried, Crist generally received between 25% and 33% of the vote, while Welch’s support ranged from roughly 35% to 52%. The widest apparent gap came in Precinct 113, at Christ Gospel Church on 22nd Ave. South, where Welch received about 52% to Crist’s 22%. Welch’s narrowest win margin among precincts he carried was at precinct 227, at Fifth Ave. Church of Christ on 5th Ave. South, where Welch won by just 2 percentage points. At nearby precinct 228, at St. Luke’s United Methodist Church, Welch won by 4 points.
In other words, Welch won his strongest neighborhoods and sometimes comfortably. But even across that territory, Crist was routinely capturing roughly a quarter to a third of the vote.
Crist has been steadily closing what was once a much wider gap with Black voters.
Polling before the Primary had already picked up that movement. A St. Pete Polls survey conducted in late June showed Welch leading Crist among Black voters 42% to 30%. Three months earlier, that advantage stood at 55% to 16%. Welch had lost 13 percentage points while Crist gained 14 before Election Day even arrived.
Tuesday’s precinct results do not show Crist overtaking Welch in predominantly Black neighborhoods, but they do show that even where Welch was strongest, Crist already has a substantial foothold.
That gives Crist something Welch does not appear to have: some level of meaningful support even in precincts he lost.
Crist cuts into Republican territory.
Republican-leaning precincts also went for Crist, despite voters having two Republicans — former St. Petersburg Fire Chief Jim Large and businessman Kevin Batdorf — on the ballot.
That is especially notable given the election coincides with high-profile races for Governor, U.S. Senate and Congress, which will likely translate to a high Republican voter turnout in November.
Still, even Large generally finished second to Crist in GOP-leaning areas such as Shore Acres and portions of west St. Petersburg. Large won just one precinct, at South Causeway Isles, according to the Times.
Crist therefore enters November having already shown crossover appeal in parts of the city where a Democrat might otherwise expect to struggle — and where Welch has even less obvious room to grow.
Hurricane Helene and Milton response may be sinking Welch
Batdorf, who made Welch’s response to Hurricanes Helene and Milton a centerpiece of his campaign, backed Crist Wednesday while again criticizing the administration’s storm recovery efforts and management of City Hall.
The hurricane issue offers one of the clearest examples of how Welch’s 2021 coalition fractured, and the data supports it.
The Times found several flood-hit neighborhoods that supported Welch in 2021 moved sharply away from him Tuesday.
Welch finished fourth in Allendale Park/Five Points and Crescent Heights. He also landed near the bottom in Old Southeast, Coquina Key, Bahama Shores and the pink streets of Pinellas Point. Shore Acres and Barcley Estates, two neighborhoods hit especially hard by the 2024 storms, favored Crist and Large.
While those results don’t establish why individual voters abandoned Welch — his first term has drawn criticism over issues extending well beyond hurricane recovery, including fundraising struggles, campaign finance problems and the loss of several former political allies — the geography is notable. Political fallout from the storms has been a major point of criticism since before Welch even launched his re-election campaign.
Democrats aren’t necessarily coming back to Welch
The Times identified neighborhoods that backed City Council Member Brandi Gabbard as potential fertile ground for Welch in November. But Tuesday’s results offer a reason for caution.
Gabbard won just two precincts, in Democratic-rich Historic Kenwood and Central Oak Park. Welch finished third in both.
Those voters already had Welch on the ballot and chose another Democrat instead.
That does not mean they will break for Crist in November, but it also doesn’t guarantee they’ll break for Welch.
The other 45%
About 45% of Tuesday’s vote went to candidates who will not be on the ballot in November, leaving Crist and Welch two months to compete for voters who rejected both of them in the Primary.
Batdorf has already endorsed Crist, while Large declined to back either candidate. Gabbard and Scruggs supporters bring their own priorities and political allegiances, and November will also draw voters who skipped the Primary altogether.
That makes any simple vote-transfer math unreliable speculation. But the precinct results, especially paired with Crist’s more than 14-point advantage over Welch at the polls Tuesday, do show that Welch has the more difficult assignment.
Crist can spend the next two months trying to consolidate a lead that already stretches across nearly every part of the city, and chipping away at Welch’s strongest footholds.
Meanwhile, Welch must win back voters in neighborhoods he carried five years ago, expand beyond the precincts he still holds and keep Crist from gaining more ground in his strongest territory.
Crist has room to grow almost everywhere. Welch has no ground left to surrender.
___
Ed. note: Michelle Todd Schorsch is the Chair of St. Pete Shines, a political committee backing Crist for St. Petersburg Mayor. Todd Schorsch is married to Peter Schorsch, the publisher of Florida Politics.
Written by Jesse Mendoza of Florida Politics